A month into the new year and all of the 2025 data is finally in to help us dissect what happened with the real estate market last year. This will help us understand where things are likely headed for 2026.

You have probably already heard that for Greater Vancouver as a whole, 2025 recorded the lowest number of home sales in 20 years. In real estate terms, “Greater Vancouver” consists of the municipalities from Tsawwassen to Whistler, and Maple Ridge to the lower Sunshine Coast. We can also drill down and look at the numbers specific to the Sunshine Coast. Even though Greater Vancouver sales were down overall, on the Sunshine Coast we saw sales go up slightly versus the previous year. Here is why…

The downturn in the Lower Mainland, and really across much of BC, was driven by three factors…

1.        The overall market decline was a luxury-lead downturn. The highest priced homes were the first to stall, and when the higher priced homes aren’t selling that puts downward pressure on all homes. When the $7million detached homes drop into the sixes, and the $6million homes drop into the fives, and so on, that pushes the prices down for all properties.

2.        At the same time, the pressure at the other end came from the declining condo market. The horrible Toronto condo market has been widespread news, and Vancouver’s condo market has also taken a big hit. This is due to investors shying away from the entry-level studio and one-bedroom condos that would normally be bought up and rented out as investment properties.

The coast is very different than the Lower Mainland when it comes to these two sectors. While there certainly are luxury properties on the Sunshine Coast, as of January 31st of this year, 71% of all real estate listings on the coast were priced under $1.5million. While that is still expensive for many people, that’s not considered “luxury” real estate by Vancouver standards. On the condo front, the Sunshine Coast averages a mere 3 condo sales and 3 townhome sales per month – not nearly enough to have any significant impact on larger statistics.

3.        The third factor is the one that I have heard the fewest people speaking about, and it is important to consider. For the first time in the history of Stats Canada, BC experienced a decline in population in 2025. Where did the people go? It wasn’t to other provinces. BC experienced a net-gain in inter-provincial migration from Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and yes, even Alberta. In Canadian terms, we are still a more attractive province to be in. The population loss came from international permanent non-residents. 2025 was the first of three years where the federal government is attempting to decrease immigration, and it was clearly working.

The Lower Mainland remains a highly desirable place for people to live from around the world, but why didn’t that affect the Sunshine Coast? Simply put, the Sunshine Coast isn’t one of the top local municipalities that people from abroad choose to settle in.

Now let’s talk about 2026.

Interest Rates – The Bank of Canada reduced interest rates four times last year. The common pattern with falling interest rates is to lead prospective buyers to remain on the sidelines, waiting to see just how low they will go.  This year, rates have stabilized and economists predict that they will remain flat through 2026. Meaning they are as low as they are predictably going to go, and that is no longer a reason for buyers to wait.

Buyers are looking – We know this because Internet property searches are still high.

Supply and Demand – Single-family home starts in the Lower Mainland are plummeting. At the same time, the new Gibsons Official Community Plan was just announced and includes rezoning with significant increases in densification.

Pricing – In many areas, pricing has returned to pre-COVID levels. It’s a correction, not a crash. Inventory levels remain high. Sellers are competing for buyers. Prices on the coast should continue to correct for the first few months of the year, possibly levelling out in the Spring market. It’s a buyer’s market, no question.

Of course, trade wars, tariffs, and the unpredictable international relations add a massive grain of salt to all of this, and things could change on a dime. However, knowing what we know from real estate patterns over the last few decades, we should expect more consistency and predictability for 2026 - at least on a local level.

I hope this has been helpful. If you are thinking of buying or selling on the Sunshine Coast this year, let’s talk.